Modeling Project Part 4
Validation of Optimized HMS Parameters
and Modeling Project Report
In this section you will use your optimized HMS model with another storm and compare the response to the corresponding observed flow. It is good to check if your optimized model can be used for other storms for the same watershed and model parameters. This process is called Model Validation. If your model works for any set of storms within a certain level of accuracy, then it can be used to forecast the runoff based on some hypothetical future storm.
- Download a second set of storm data here. Using the optimized HMS model, enter this new storm data, replacing the August 21st storm used previously. Save and run the model. At this stage do not change any parameters, just see the response of your optimized model in this new storm. Compare the Observed flow with the simulated flow using this template. Be careful while pasting simulated results in this template as the flow data starts earlier than your storm data. Match your dates before plotting. Report your result and observation.
- Now, realizing that the initial moisture conditions for the watershed for this event may be different than the first, adjust only the initial moisture to see if you can match the observed flow better and report your results.
Now it is time to report your work. You will summarize the models, methods, parameters, optimization, comparison and validation works in a systematic order. Try to follow the same order in the report as the order you worked. It is not necessary to discuss a lot about the methodology and optimization trials you made. But it will be good to include what you observed while doing optimization like which parameters were sensitive, the effects of increasing and/or decreasing the parameters on outflow hydrograph, etc.
It is up to you how you present your GSSHA and HMS results. You may discuss the HMS models first and then do GSSHA or you may write a comparative study report; whichever way you think will be more effective and reflect your efforts and observations.
The following things should be included in your report (This is for both GSSHA and HMS)
Parameters for you used for the initial model (with the actual storm before comparing to the observed flow).
Results from the initial model (Just show pictures of your hydrographs and discuss the results since you sent the data in the template already).
Your reaction/observations about your initial results when you first compared with the observed flow data (discuss why you think there are variations between the simulated and observed flow).
Optimization process, optimized parameters, sensitivity of the parameters to the outflow hydrograph etc
Comparison and discussion of optimized, Simulated flow vs Observed flow
Discussion on validation, your observation, and specify your recommendation on your model. Can it be used for forecasting? Or do you think your model needs further improvement?
Level of modeling experience you have gained and what have you learned specifically from this project?
3-5 page report documenting your analysis and review of HMS vs GSSHA modeling.
Result Templates for Initial Run, Optimized results and validated results. (you already turned some of these in, but include the Excel files in your zip file)
Parameters summarized in the spreadsheet